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Polish economy accelerates further

  • The Polish economy expanded by 5.5% y/y in the second quarter in real terms, which means further acceleration from the 5.2% seen a quarter ago. The pace of economic growth has been steadily accelerating in each quarter since 2Q05. Even though the polls indicated a figure of just 5.2% at the beginning of the month, analysts have been upping their estimates amid incoming favorable data to a consensus of 5.4% just before the release. Thus, the encouraging number has not come as a total surprise to the market.
  • Domestic demand (up 5.1% y/y) remains the driving engine of the Polish economy. In particular, investments saw spectacular acceleration, doubling their dynamics to 14.4% y/y. There are more factors that could explain this, starting from healthy corporate profits, solid domestic and foreign demand and the inflow of EU funds. Consumption stayed robust, although its growth moderated somewhat to 3.5 % y/y, due to the slowdown in both household and government consumption (the latter even saw a decline on a yearly basis). The contribution from exports remained in positive territory, albeit lower than in the previous quarter.
  • In light of today’s release, we raise our prediction for the whole-year growth to 5.4%. However, the data does not alter the interest rate outlook. Although the economy is gathering pace, the main factor to thank is investments, which enhance the potential of the economy. In the opposite direction, consumption has moderated.
  • The zloty failed to extract much support from the release, as the discrepancy to the expectations was not high. All eyes are now on the monetary policy meeting. While the actual decision will not cause much excitement (unless a rate change occurs), the comment will be of interest, given the higher inflation (CPI and PPI) data released this month. As we do not expect any strongly hawkish message, the market might even be disappointed, leading to slight zloty losses.

Maria Feherova
Ceska sporitelna, a.s.

CEN8010, Economic and Strategic Research
Na Perstyne 1, Prague 1, 113 98
Czech Republic
tel.: + 420 224 995 232
fax: + 420 224 995 120

Important disclaimers are available at:  www.csas.cz/research_disclosures



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